Education in the US: Statistics and Predictions

What follows are some thoughts on how education might change in the US for  international students and for US colleges and universities too. The questions were asked to me from a reporter at major news agency in China.

I

What policies on international students that Trump possibly will adapt?  Will the policies on international students keep stable, or change dramatically? 

About the only thing that is certain about Donald Trump this past year has been that he is unpredictable. Therefore, for me to suggest what he will do when it comes to his policy on international students is at best a risk and at worst misleading. Nevertheless, there are some signs that Trump may make it more difficult for international students both in terms of coming to the US and then for those who wish to stay after they have graduated.

First off, there needs to be a bit more segmentation when talking about the future fate of international students.  The international students who have the most to worry about are those who are Muslims. Throughout his run for the Presidency, Mr. Trump has made it clear that he will, at the very least, make all Muslims go through what he calls “extreme vetting” a thorough background check that will err on the side of turning people away rather than letting them enter the US. It is not clear what this terms actually means in pragmatic terms, but it may well turn out that many students, even if offered admission by universities in the US, will not have their visas approved at the US embassies. At one point, Trump said he would ban all Muslims from coming to the US. As this is contrary to the US Constitution he cannot make this a policy; nevertheless, it does indicate his desire to curtail the number of Muslims coming to the US, and this will decrease the number of international students, especially since the country that sends the third largest number of students to the US (well below, however,  that of China and India) is Saudi Arabia. I  am certainly not the only one who feels that Mr. Trump’s policy of vetting will have negative  consequences  on the number of international students coming to the US:

Philip Altbach, research professor and founding director of the Center for International Higher Education at Boston College, said that Mr Trump’s promise to implement “extreme vetting” of Muslims and other immigrants to the US will “deter some students from applying to US schools” and “make it more difficult” for those who do apply.

As for how Mr. Trump’s presidency may affect the number of students from China it may be that heightened regulations for issuing student visas will prevent students from entering the US. As recently as a decade ago significant numbers of Chinese students who had been offered admission to schools in the US could not enroll because they were not approved for entry by the staff at the US embassies. While he has given no indication that he will make it difficult for Chinese students, he has often chosen to name China as responsible for some of the economic problems affecting US citizens. If he imposes tariffs on Chinese goods and this affects the global economy and exchange rates, it will mean that at least some families in China will no longer to be able to send their children abroad.  Currently markets have responded to the election with stronger showings overall on the belief that Trump will deregulate industry in significant ways. If, however, he does follow through on his campaign promise to impose tariffs on both China and Mexico this may create significant problems (the Mexican peso, as of this writing, has already lost 10% of its value since the election).

On just released data there are currently over 1,000,000 international students studying at colleges and universities in the US. This is the first time in history there has been over a million students in the US from abroad, but given what Mr. Trump has said this past year it is unlikely this number will increase and it may well happen that the number drops and in the worst case scenario, drops significantly.

II

Will a Trump Presidency be a nightmare for international students?

Once again, it is impossible for me to know if my prognostications about the next four years will be accurate, but what I can say is that what I have already seen and heard make it clear that things are not going to be idyllic any time soon.

For the past week I have been reaching out to international students (and some recent graduates), parents of international students, and educators working around the world and asking them what they think about Mr. Trump and what they think will happen during his presidency.

As might be expected, there is no monolithic reaction to Mr. Trump. The reactions I have received have ranged from outrage and fear to acceptance, indifference, or in a few cases, support for his strength and acumen as a businessman. But those who are fearful and worried far outnumber those who are secure and happy with the results of the election.

Rather than focus on these reactions, however, I want to talk about concrete events that have happened this week and actions that some will take in the future. A Chinese student I know well was walking on her campus on Wednesday when the following happened: “As I walked on the street, a white man yelled at me, "’Yellow girl, go back to your country!’" (I am quoting from her post on WeChat).  This occurred on one of the top 25 universities in the US and on a campus that is known for its beauty and safety. Unfortunately, this is not an isolated event. Around the US there have been a number of incidents on campuses in which students of color, some international, have been verbally abused. Does this mean that xenophobia and racism has suddenly increased? I do not think so; there are always going to be people who are ignorant this way, but it seems that some of these people feel that that they can now voice their thoughts without fear of repercussions. What this incident raises is the question as to whether this overt dislike of international students would discourage students from applying to US schools or if accepted from enrolling. Perhaps a more important question is: should the current climate dissuade families from encouraging their student to come to the US. Is it worth spending more than $250,000 for what might end up being a negative experience?

Once again I will answer by  quoting  a currently enrolled intentional student ;after I shared the story of the specific incident I described above she  quoted a proverb in China: 乱世出英雄  “In troubled times heroes are born”. Her point is that these incidents (and other challenges too) could happen to all of us in some form at some point in our lives. Learning to deal with them and grow from them is a part of what maturing is all about. And with that in mind I will add the rest of the story about the student who was verbally abused. After the man shouted at her  "’Yellow girl, go back to your country!’"  She responded this way:

"Hmm, why don't you go back to Europe?" I asked. I pointed at some people around me:  “Do you think he should go back to India, and she should go back to Africa? But, I am sorry. Last summer, I visited my Native American friends in Navajo country. They liked me a lot, and they invited me to stay. I am afraid that I will stay here a little longer."

It is hard to imagine a better response—her words demonstrate both her wisdom and biting wit too. She is not going to be crushed by the hurtful words directed at her. She has learned how to fight back—with words, facts and courage. I am not, of course, saying that the increase in racist and xenophobic remarks is in any way acceptable behavior; instead, I am pointing out that how people react is also part of the larger ideological landscape.

On the other hand, I also want to cite the comments of a Chinese citizen who graduated from a top US university and who has worked in New York for a number of years (including in an office in Trump Tower and including meetings with the Trump family).  She said that she would be hesitant to send her child to the US right now. The environment is already stressful for a student having to get used to another culture and language. Having to deal with racist people may prevent a student from achieving his or her potential.

As with many issues in life there are no single correct answers to large questions. For some, having to live in fear of being around people who think of you in racist or xenophobic terms would be a nightmare; for others, it might be a challenge, but one that ultimately promotes personal growth. 

The last way to address this question is to point out that that the nightmare that may happen to students in the US has nothing to do with hateful comments or personal attacks of some sort.  What ultimately may turn international students’ experience in the US into something nightmarish is what will happen once they graduate. As it currently stands, international students have the opportunity to stay in the US for a year after graduation (OPT is the acronym and it stands for optional practical training). Many students use this time as a wonderful opportunity to work for a company, usually a Fortune 500 company, in order to gain practical experience in the real world. Currently there are over 147,000 international students in the US doing an OPT, a nearly 23% increase from the previous year. During his campaign, Mr. Trump said, on several occasions that he would get rid of the practical training option for international students. If this does happen, it will mean that many students who hoped they could improve their skills and marketability will no longer be able to do so.

It is also worth noting that for those students who wish to stay in the US after graduation longer than the practical training period they must first be offered a job and must be sponsored by the company for an H-1B work visa. For many companies the practical training period is the time to assess whether someone will ultimately gain a full time work offer. Without work experience it will be virtually impossible for many students wishing to go into consulting, banking and other fields to do so in the US.

But things may get even worse for international graduates. During the campaign season, Mr. Trump said many contradictory things on many different topics. What he said about international students and H1-B visas is no exception. At one point he said that the US needs people who have high skill levels and that the US should do what it takes to make sure to secure that talent. On the other hand on the more ominous side is what has said most often:

“I will end forever the use of the H-1B as a cheap labor program, and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first for every visa and immigration program. No exceptions.”

Mr. Trump is not going to completely eliminate the H1-B program but it is clear that he will make it a last resort rather than a priority.  Given that the success rate for those who apply to the US government for H1B visa was only 37%, last year,  he may well lower this percentage significantly. If he does, most companies will not even bother to try to give international student practical training opportunities and will not bother to try to sponsor them for jobs. They will, I think rightfully so, come to the conclusion that it will not be worth the added cost both in time and money to train people who will likely have to leave. In other words, there will be a feedback loop in which companies will no longer hire international students since the chance of them being able to stay is so small. This  will, affect whether  students would choose come to the US at all. Canada, for example, has much less stringent requirements for international students to obtain work visas.

If I have made a good case for why things look nightmarish for international students I will now try, paradoxically, to show why none if this might happen. About a year and a half ago, I was interviewed by The Atlantic magazine about the huge growth of students coming to the US from China. One quote was subsequently picked up as a meme by some other media: “American universities are addicted to Chinese students.” I still stand by that statement but I would broaden it to say many colleges and universities are addicted to international students.  What do I mean by this? As costs at colleges have far outpaced the vast majority of US families’ ability to pay full price for an education two things have happened. Students in the US have amassed more debt than there was during the housing bubble of 2008. Parents and families are now backing away from enrolling I schools that do not offer significant breaks on tuition in the form of need based aid or tuition discounts. As a result, many schools are desperately looking for students who can pay full fees and they have turned to international students to help solve the problem. 

There are now thousands of international students at some universities in the US (the top 8 universities each have well over 10,000 international students) and there are hundreds at some small liberal arts schools especially among women’s colleges. In many cases, the schools would be in significant financial difficulties if international students would no longer come in the numbers they do now. In fact, there are  some schools that would likely have to close; many more would have to force more US students into greater debt to pay for their education. Full paying international students help to offset some of the costs for US students and provide money to continue to improve the infrastructure of the schools.

If colleges and universities are forced to close, the entire community in which  the school is a  part will suffer—restaurants, hotels, and many other businesses that cater to students and their families would go out of business too. Currently, the estimated amount of money that comes to the US from international students is well over 30 billion dollars. If even a small percentage of this money dries up because international students stop coming, then many jobs may be lost, something that Mr. Trump has pledged not to let happen. He was elected in part due to his pledge that he will create many more jobs. He may, therefore, have to back away from his remarks about international students, H1-B visas, and even Muslim students so that he can keep his pledge about economic recovery for the middle class.

Obviously, given the complexity of the issues, the contradictory nature of Mr. Trump’s remarks, and the often conflicting nature of economic forces that come into play the situation facing international students and families is anything but secure. I hope for the sake of the economy and for the importance of maintaining a global view that Mr. Trump will forgo his anti-international rhetoric and make more room for international students to enrich this country intellectually and culturally (while still helping to provide support economically too).

III

The topic of Trump and international students has been a source of much interest among educators around the world. I wanted to cite a few sources that are worth investigating for what they reveal.

On the website quora.com, a website for people to ask and answer questions there are over 75 answers to the question

How will Trump’s presidency affect international students in the US?

There are a number of helpful responses that will help people understand there this is a time of uncertainty and that people from around the world perceive this issue in different ways. I do not think it is useful to say there is one international view and one ‘right’ answer to a question that is asking people to predict the future.

******************************************************************************************

The next resource I am highlighting comes from Beijing. I am grateful to Gloria and Terry Crawford, the founders of InitialView, a business that conducts interviews of international students. The students can then permit schools to access these interviews in order to help schools make admission decisions. They are the only ones that I have seen who have actually conduced a survey among students to find out what they think about the election:

It should come as no surprise that Donald Trump is coming up in our interviews with international students, even with us being careful to not put students on the spot about their personal political views. We decided to broadly poll our WeChat followers in China about Donald Trump becoming the U.S. president. We had over 300 students vote anonymously.

Here’s what we asked:

1. From your perspective as a soon-to-be international student, how do you think having Donald Trump as the U.S. president will impact you?

A. I think that it won’t have much impact on me: 21.4%
B. I am concerned that it will have a negative impact on me: 51.8%
C. I think it will have a positive impact on me: 26.8%

2. How do you think having Donald Trump as the U.S. president will influence the decisions of future international students?

A. I do not think that it will have much impact. Students will make their decisions based on other factors: 51.3%
B. I think it will have a negative impact upon the desire of international students to study in the U.S.: 40.9%
C. I think it will have positive impact upon the desire of students to study in the U.S.: 7.7%:

One interesting question: Why would 26.8% think that a Trump presidency would have a beneficial impact upon them while only 7.7% think that it would have a positive impact upon the desire of future students from China to study in the U.S.? Always glad to hear what others might think.

If you would like to see the original survey in Chinese, just let us know and we will email it to you.

Warm regards from InitialView in Beijing.

Finally I would like to thank the many students, parents and educators I have reached out over the last week. Special thanks to Katia Hua, who first got me thinking about how to answer these questions by asking me to contribute to an article for the China based news organization Global News. She has long been a passionate advocate for international students (as well as a former reporter for CCTV).  Particular thanks go to  the students I talked to, especially Lily, Mier, Stone, Mia Tony and to alums Tong, Eric. And Richard. There are many others, but each of these people has been affected in some way by the recent election. I hope that they will continue to thrive in their communities and will find that the US will be a wonderful place to complete their education.